September‘23 Market Update

Ottawa Real Estate Market Update: Sleepy September

Sales Volume and General Thoughts

In September 2023, a total of 946 homes sold the MLS® which is comparable to Septmeber ‘22. While sales were consistent with the previous year, they still fell short of typical September levels, with a 29.6% drop from the five-year average and a 23.6% decrease from the ten-year average for this month. On a year-to-date basis, home sales reached 9,889 units in the first nine months of the year. This marked a significant 13% decline from the same period in 2022.

Ken Dekker notes that while sales activity mirrored the previous year, it remained well below what’s expected for September. A surge in new listings over the past several months has gradually increased overall inventories but supply levels still remain low when compared to historical standards. The Ottawa market currently enjoys a balanced status - a notable change from the last few years being consitently a seller’s market. Sale prices are down from the previous year and roughly equate the same levels as 2021.

As this article is normally my interpretation of OREB’s monthly stats updates I would normally dive into generalized average sale prices. This month OREB decided to redirect their vernacular and discuss prices in reference to the HPI (The Home Price Index). While this tool is very usefull, in the context of the general discussion of Ottawa as a whole from a month to month update perspective, I don’t find it appropriate. Instead I will reference The general averages so that readers can compare with previous month’s and draw upon thier own conclusion. The average YTD average price was $672,837, reflecting a 6.5% decrease compared to the first nine months of 2022.

Back to the HPI - It really is a useful too. It’s something I employ in my day to day work when working with clients in order to give one interpretation of specific, local, and focused statistics. As a whole (just like general statistics) it’s hard to garner any real information except for a general pulse within an area. The intention of OREB’s market updates and of course these articles is to give you something to think about and compare from month to month. Unfortunately as I’ve stated before this information is often incomplete or framed in a hopeful way. Digging down into specifics when discussing a particular property is much more telling when trying to understand the value of a specific property. These generalizaed averages do help show general movements within a larger market and It is my hope to dissect these movements and help you by interpetting them. On to inventory.

Inventory Count

New listings showed a healthy increase of 9.8% from September 2022, with 2,259 new residential listings in September 2023. These new listings were 4.8% above the five-year average and 7% above the ten-year average for this month. As of the end of September, 2,997 residential listings were active on the market. This marked a substantial gain of 14% from September 2022, and it's noteworthy that active listings haven't been this high in September for the past five years.

Active listings are currently 33.9% above the five-year average and 18.5% below the ten-year average for this month. The months of inventory stood at 3.2 at the end of September 2023, up from 2.8 months in September 2022, although it remains below the long-run average of 3.3 months for this time of year. Months of inventory represent the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

Breaking this all down into it’s simplest form: September was slow. High inventory combined with low transaction volume means that the demand isn’t as strong - or perhaps that even though demand exists people no longer have the resources to facilitate thier demand and must wait for the market to cool. Prices are still high - despite showing signs of dropping - and interest rates have continued moving up. Currently Canadians do not have high confidence in the market and it’s easy to see why. Moving forward we just have have to wait to see if the Bank of Canada holds steady and how the market will develop moving forward.

Spooky season is around the corner - I hope that doesn;

Stay informed and keep exploring the Ottawa real estate market with me. Whether you're considering buying, selling, or investing, I'm here to assist you every step of the way. Don't hesitate to reach out with any questions or real estate needs. Your satisfaction is my top priority!

August ‘23 Market Update

August Real Estate Market Update: Where did the Summer go?

It’s time to brush up on what’s been happening in Ottawa’s real estate market! Let’s dive into August. 

Sales Volume and General Thoughts

August 2023 (AKA the shortest summer ever) saw a total of 1,196 residential sales via the MLS® (Realtor.ca). Compared to August ‘22 this marks a 6% uptick in sales. Of this value 903 properties were freehold-class properties while 293 were condo-class properties. This marks a 7% and 2% increase from the previous August respectively. Lastly, the 5 year average for August sales sits at 1,525 - meaning a real slowdown from the previous years.

Mr. Ken Dekker (President of RECO) has shared his opinions once again noting that sales activity is up over 2022 but lower than the 5 year average. He also takes note of increased immigration driving demand upwards which despite the current trends I tend to agree with moving into the future. A combination of high borrowing costs, lack of affordable housing, and skyrocketing home prices makes this market one of the least fun to purchase in. That being said, we are expected to have a record number of immigrants moving to Canada from now until 2030. Because of this wave of immigration I suspect that even with less than ideal interest rates we will see an increase in home prices in the next few years. According to CMHC we currently do not have the number of homes to house all of the pent up demand. This doesn’t even take into account the additional pent up demand of Canadians in the Millennial demographic. I suspect further rate hikes moving forward but I’m unsure how permanent of an effect they will have on our housing market. 

Janice Myers, the CEO of OREB, has chimed into the discussion around affordability and speaks to City of Ottawa’s allocation of $110 Million that is being directed toward affordable housing. Even though this is positive news, many Ottawans will still find housing to be out of reach for the near future. Janice states that collaboration among all tiers of government is critical to address our housing debacle. Higher density city-scapes is also a topic being thrown around with no current concrete resolution in sight. 

Average Sale Values

In August, the average sale price for a freehold-class property was $709,739. This represents a modest 0.5% increase from 2022 but is a 5.6% decrease compared to July ‘23 prices. Condominium-class properties saw a 1% increase over August ‘22 putting the average sale price at $425,968. Unfortunately this means a 1.4% drop from July ‘23.

YTD average sale prices are at $732,220 and $432,571 for each respective class of property. This represents an 8% decrease for freehold-class properties and a 5.5% decrease for condominium-class properties compared to the same time as last year.

Inventory Count

August's new listings totaled 2,228, which was on par compared to July ‘23 but was a large 7% increase from the previous year.  The five-year average for new listings in August is 2,177. Freehold-class properties, the months of inventory increased to 3 months from 2.7 months in July 2023. Condominium-class properties inventory experienced a slight decrease from 2.3 months in July 2023 to 2.2 months.

Days on market (DOM) for freehold properties increased to 31 days from 26 days in July ‘23. For condominiums, the DOM increased to 29 days from 28 days as of last month. 

That about wraps it up! Again We hope these statistics and thoughts prove useful to you when looking at the market and trying to untangle this web. As usual if you would like to discuss the market with either Janda or I we would be happy to sit down with you and have a chat! 

Keep in mind the stats mentioned above are merely general statistics accumulated from the whole of Ottawa. Certain neighbourhoods and specific properties may be outliers to these general statistics and if you are curious how your property fits within the data range its always best to reach out to either one of us for clarification.

Fall is in the air….. See you for September’s market update! 

Alex

July ‘23 Market Update

Positive Gains in July Resale Market: A Homebuyer's Perspective

Let’s dive right into the July 2023 market update.

Sales Volume and General Thoughts

In July ‘23, the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reported robust sales with 1,263 residential properties changing hands via the MLS® (Realtor.ca). This reflects a 15% increase when compared to the 1,102 properties sold in July ‘22. 979 of these properties were freehold, marking an 18% increase from the previous year. Condominiums saw a 6% increase over July ‘22 with 282 sales. Over the last 5 years, the month of July has seen an average of 1,621 sales per year. This shows a general slowdown from the hectic markets during the pandemic.

The President of OREB, Ken Dekker, believes that consumers during July had continued confidence in the market despite the 0.25% interest rate increase. Janda and I are a little more sceptical of the market. Within our personal social spheres we haven’t encountered a plethora of buyer confidence in reference to the average Canadian. The markets this year have been relatively unpredictable, largely in part due to interest rate hikes. Should rate hikes continue I can foresee buyer confidence waning further.

Average Sale Values

For freehold-class properties, the average sale price in July was $754,188, reflecting a notable 5% increase from ‘22. Additionally, it showed a 1% uptick compared to June ‘23 prices.

Condominium-class properties saw average sale price of $435,094, an impressive 2% increase from the previous year. This price is however slightly down by 3% from June ‘23 prices.

YTD average sale prices currently stand at $735,103 for freeholds and $433,447 for condos. This represents a 9% decrease for freehold-class properties and a 6% decrease for condominium-class properties compared to the same time of year in ‘22.

Inventory Count

July's new listings amounted to 2,234, which were 6% lower than July ‘22 (2,364) and down 19% from June ‘23 (2,755). The five-year average for new listings in July is 2,336. Freehold-class properties’ inventory decreased to 2.7 months, down from 2.9 months in July 2022, but up from 2.1 months in June 2023. Condominium-class properties’ inventory decreased to 2.3 months from 2.5 months in July 2022 but increased from 1.4 months in June 2023.

Total days on market (DOM) has increased to 26 days from 20 days in June ‘23. Condos have also seen an increase in days on market landing on 28 days compared to the 20 in June.

Janda and I have personally experienced Seller’s whos expectations are that of the crazy markets of the pandemic. The general hum from other real estate professionals and a quick look at the increase in DOM indicates we aren't the only ones experiencing this. Multiple offer situations can and still will happen if the property is priced appropriately, but this type of behaviour will continue to cool with each incremental interest rate hike. Keep in mind that the value of your property is what the market is willing to pay for it. To all of the Homeowners who wish they sold in April of ‘22: the market is cooling. Remember for your average buyer it’s also a lot more expensive to make the same purchase today as it was even a year ago.

I hope these stats and the accompanying ramble were useful to you. If you’d like to talk more about how the market is behaving or perhaps want help navigating it in order to figure out your next step - don’t hesitate to reach out to either Janda or I and we would be happy to help you. 

Keep in mind that:

A Friendly Reminder: OREB cautions that while the average sale price is useful for tracking trends, it should not be the sole indicator of specific property values. This average is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold, and actual prices can vary significantly from one neighbourhood to another.

Stay tuned for more real estate updates and insights right here. We're committed to speaking frankly about Ottawa's ever-evolving real estate landscape. There are many details that go into forming our opinions on the market but unfortunately not all of them are able to make it into this article. If you ever feel like you need clarification, again, don’t hesitate to contact us.

See you for August!

- Alex 

June ‘23 Market Update

Greetings! I'm thrilled to share some insightful information about the latest developments in the Ottawa real estate market. In June, members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) successfully sold 1,658 residential properties through the Board's Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System. This marks an 11% increase compared to June 2022 when 1,493 properties were sold.

Let's dive into the specifics of last month's sales. Out of the total, 1,234 were freehold properties, representing a 10% increase from the previous year. Additionally, 424 condominium properties were sold, experiencing a substantial 16% rise from June 2022. It's worth noting that the five-year average for total unit sales in June stands at 1,881.

While June's transactions outperformed June of 2022, it's important to mention that the volume of sales, average prices, and new listings declined on a week-to-week basis throughout the month. This trend may have been influenced by the Bank of Canada's interest rate adjustment at the beginning of June.

Now, let's take a closer look at the average prices for different property types. The average sale price for a freehold property was $746,445, representing a 4% decrease from 2022 but remaining consistent with May 2023 prices. On the other hand, the average sale price for a condominium property was $448,380, experiencing a 2% increase compared to the previous year and a 1% increase over May 2023 prices.

As for the year-to-date average sale prices, we observe a 10% decrease for freehold properties (currently standing at $731,847) and a 7% decrease for condominiums (currently at $432,885) compared to 2022. It's important to note that these values reflect the overall trend in the market and should not be interpreted as indicators of individual property value changes. Prices can vary significantly depending on the region or neighborhood of Ottawa.

Lets turn our attention to inventory and new listings. Before we get into any details I first want to explain how inventory levels are often discussed within the real estate sphere. Inventory levels are expressed in values of “months” for example 2 and a half months. This means that if the inventory levels are currently at 2 and a half months, then the market would be able to sustain itself for that long at it’s current rate of sales if listings were to suddenly scream to a halt. Now, onto the analytics! June saw 2,758 new listings, which is 14% lower than June 2022 and a 2% decrease from May 2023. The five-year average for new listings in June is 2,802. The total inventory for freehold properties increased to 2.1 months, up from 1.9 months in June 2022 and 1.5 months in May 2023. For condominiums, the months of inventory decreased slightly to 1.4 months from 1.6 months in June 2022, but it is up from 1.3 months in May 2023.

If you're wondering about the time it takes for properties to sell, the average days on market (DOM) for freehold properties remained consistent with the previous month at 23 days. However, condominiums experienced a slight increase to 27 days compared to 26 days in May 2023.

Looking ahead, we are anticipating a robust second half of 2023 in terms of sales volume and prices compared to last year. Whether you're considering buying or selling, don’t hesitate to reach out to us at the Nautilus Real Estate Team for guidance as we are always watching for the week-to-week fluctuations in Ottawa's resale market.

Remember, the average sale price is useful for tracking market trends over time, but it should not be solely relied upon to assess specific property values. Property prices can vary greatly depending on the neighborhood and other factors.

If you have any questions or are looking for expert guidance, reach out to us and we would be happy to set up a meeting with you to discuss any questions you may need answered.

Stay tuned for the July Update coming in August!

Janda and Alex

First Official Post!

Welcome to our News page, your go-to source for all things real estate! The purpose of this page is to provide you with valuable insights, market statistics, and timely updates to ensure you stay well-informed about the ever-evolving real estate landscape. Our goal is to be one of the main resources you can trust to help guide you through the intricacies of the market while helping you make informed decisions.

Keep an eye out for regular updates about market trends, including sales figures, average prices, and inventory levels. We'll highlight the important numbers and provide analysis to give you a clear understanding of the current state of the real estate market. Whether you're a seasoned investor, a first-time buyer, or simply interested in staying informed, we aim to provide you with the knowledge you need in order to navigate the market with confidence.

In addition to statistical breakdowns, we’ll also feature opinion pieces that delve into the broader aspects of the real estate industry. Our expert contributors will share their insights on emerging trends, economic and political influences, and any other factors that may shape the future of the Ottawa real estate market. These engaging articles will give you a fresh perspective and highlight additional considerations you may find important to keep educated within our shifting market.

Here at Nautilus Real Estate Team, we believe that knowledge is power. Whether you're considering buying, selling, or investing, our News page is here to provide you with the insights you need to stay ahead of the curve.

We invite you to bookmark this page, sign up for our newsletter, or follow us on social media to ensure you never miss an update.

Thank you for stopping by Nautils Real Estate Team. We are honoured to be your guide in your pursuit of real estate success. Stay tuned for exciting updates and expert analysis – we can't wait to embark on this informative journey with you!

See you soon,

Janda and Alex